Notable in this category is McGeorge Bundy, Kennedy’s national security adviser. Subsequently a professor at New York University, Bundy was an influence on Jervis as he wrote The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution, as the preface and citations indicate. Jervis neither engages with the anti-nuclear movement nor discusses the controversial question of Intermediate Nuclear Force deployments in Europe and the 1987 treaty that eliminated them, except in passing.
Glaser holds a Ph.D. from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, a B.S. Before joining George Washington University, Glaser was the Emmett Dedmon Professor of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. His books include Rational Theory of International Politics and Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy .
In 2018, he was awarded the International Studies Association, Security Studies Section, Distinguished Scholar Award for lifetime achievement in research and mentoring. In addition, the India-Pakistan nuclear dyad, which emerged following the Cold War, has the potential to become a nuclear relationship that is defined by mutual vulnerability. The predictions of the nuclear revolution theory can increasingly be tested by exploring whether and when these dyads meet the theory’s requirements and whether the states’ actions then align with the theory’s predictions. The second component of the revolution is the implication of this situation for security among nuclear-armed states. Nuclear weapons dampen or even eliminate the security dilemma that drives distrust among states.
While Schelling’s memo is an extreme example, these kinds of dilemmas and uncertainties emerge again and again when we think about nuclear policy. Few analysts are comfortable with the puzzles, tensions, and even contradictions presented by nuclear weapons. The ECB obtained complete control on January , once the euro became the Euro area’s official currency. At this time, the national central banks of eleven EU member states transferred their monetary policy responsibility to the ECB. By the middle of the 2010s, Jervis’ work became increasingly salient again, as Russia invaded Ukraine and China began to increasingly challenge U.S. interests in the western Pacific.
Every six weeks, the President and Vice-President of the ECB hold a press conference to explain the monetary policy decisions. The Governing Council also makes decisions about the performance of the ECB and the Eurosystem. It controls the amount of money in the market by controlling currency supply available to EU member states’ central and commercial banks. In this article, we’ll highlight its role and the influence it has on the Eurozone economy and financial markets. The ECB policy statement and press conference will be important for currency markets and the Euro. According to ING, the conclusion of the ECB strategic review means the distribution of probabilities is skewed to lower EUR/USD tomorrow.
- The nuclear revolution also meant that old ideas about how to fight wars were now irrelevant.
- Eligible banks – those with collateral – place bids for the ECB funds through auctions, advanced as loans to businesses and individuals.
- This raises the difficult issue of whether the ECB should be considering the needs of Germany, its largest economy and biggest creditor, or whether it should counter German thinking and focus on the requirements of the entire euro area.
- Consider the perplexing ruminations of Jervis’ forbearer, friend, and mentor, Thomas Schelling.
- So does this mean the nuclear revolution was a myth, or at least was greatly overstated?
Faced with the shadow of a losing competition that might threaten the Soviet Union’s national survival, Mikhail Gorbachev chose risky internal reform over other courses of action that might have led to war.81 A more hawkish Soviet leader might have chosen differently and perhaps disastrously. Yet, the fact that mutual second strike could, at least in the minds of some in the Soviet leadership, recede once it is established is an important insight into the impermanence of the nuclear revolution — MAD is a variable, not an entirely irrevocable condition. Third, we may need to revisit the political implications of MAD when its durability is less certain than imagined by Jervis and other nuclear revolution theorists. Jervis’ arguments essentially assume that states know they are under MAD conditions and expect that they will persist.
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Over the last decade, nuclear revolution theory has begun to face some serious criticism. Critics argue that maintaining an assured retaliatory destruction capability is more difficult than Jervis and other theorists of the nuclear revolution believed. They maintain that, as a result, many of the theory’s predictions are flawed and its policy guidance is wanting. Meaning provides much of the foundation for this emerging debate — Jervis’ clarification of key nuclear concepts and his expectations for superpower behavior in MAD make Meaning a key target for critics of nuclear revolution theory.
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If nothing else, Meaning ably captures the state of thinking on nuclear policy issues just as the Cold War was coming to an end. Risk assets have rebounded from their swoon earlier in the month, with bond yields bouncing off lows. Such sharp price swings are the latest example of markets overreacting while grappling with the unusually wide range of potential outcomes that lie beyond the restart of economic activity.
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And the retaliator can drive up the required effectiveness by increasing the size of its force. Finally, a state can deploy its forces in a variety of basing modes, including mobile modes, thereby further increasing the technological challenges facing the attacker. Charles L. Glaser is professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. He was the founding director of the Elliott School’s Institute for Security and Conflict Studies from 2009–2019. His research focuses on international relations theory, including the security dilemma, defensive realism, and arms races; and on international security policy, including U.S. policy toward China, U.S. nuclear weapons policy, and energy security.
Hawks are opposed to quantitative easing as they believe that it distorts asset markets. These individuals are pro high interest rates as they see them as a means of controlling inflation. The views expressed here are his own and do not represent the views or policy of the Joint Staff, the Department of Defense, or any other entity. Retrospectively reviewing the work of Robert Jervis is tough, in large part due to the outstanding nature of the work, but also because on a personal level Jervis is, in the words of one of his colleagues, a “mensch.”48 The field of security studies is not lacking in egotists and curmudgeons, and he is decidedly neither. Jervis is also more willing to offer critiques of his own work than many senior scholars.49 It is thus easy for the reviewer to default to praise, particularly with a work as logically compelling as The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution. But if, as Jervis argues, people’s beliefs construct reality, the belief that this tradition of restraint is a valuable norm, or even a taboo, may contribute to its preservation.
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Many leaders of nuclear-armed states have not behaved in accordance with the theory. If they did, nuclear-armed states should have adopted minimalist, second-strike nuclear arsenals reflecting more “existential” deterrence postures and modest conventional forces, while engaging in few great-power crises. Arms competitions, including pursuit of missile defense, would be unnecessary. This inundates financial institutions with capital, thereby increasing the money supply with the aim of promoting lending and increasing liquidity. So does this mean the nuclear revolution was a myth, or at least was greatly overstated?