The fact that there was a high level of short positioning in the yen may have exacerbated the jump in the currency. It also helps to explain why the JPY has massively outperformed its safe-haven peer, the Swiss franc, although intervention from the Swiss National Bank has also played a key role. Not only songs from Indonesian singers or western bands like The Rolling Stones, Sia, Tones and I, Justin Bieber and Maroon 5 are all you can download. But almost all the world’s artists and singers can be you find and download the song there.
For silver, the effect is less pronounced but still there – swap dealers were net short by 2,241 contracts as of 29 September, about 2% of open interest. Of those, managed money is clearly useful, being obvious speculation/investment demand. Across all 22 commodities in the new report, gold and silver have the highest ‘managed money’ long, at 44% and 33% of open interest respectively, which intuitively seems right.
Decoding The Cot Report
- Oanda could have allowed the option of seeing the Net positions of Commercials and Small Speculators as well.
- This helps to explain the move in the EUR/USD, which likely reflected markets squeezing their short EUR positions.
- One can follow these guys to gauge trend strength, as they are often trend followers, and at the same time one has to be mindful that any extreme in net short or long positions can signal a trend reversal.
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- Overall as per the table below there were no major changes apart from the renewed selling of Mexican peso with a net short emerging for the first time since December 2018.
- When you follow the Non-Commercial you are generally following the smart money, the guys who are spending their careers studying the markets and pinpointing the trends.
Forex Academy is among the trading communities’ largest online sources for news, reviews, and analysis on currencies, cryptocurrencies, commodities, metals, and indices. You are strongly advised to obtain independent financial, legal and tax advice before proceeding with any currency or spot metals trade. It is possible, because the CFTC classifies entities not trades, that of the swap dealers’ 34,250 spreading contracts all 34,250 held long were hedging index fund exposure, but none of the 34,250 held short were not. The other G10 commodity currency, the Canadian dollar, actually saw its positioning gauge inch up. We think this dynamic has inverted in the past few days, as the fall in oil prices and internal disruptions due to anti-pipeline demonstrations added to the generalised risk-off environment and hit the loonie. Before the bounce in EUR/USD seen in recent trading sessions, net positioning on the pair was at a nine-month low (-18% of open interest).
How To Use The Cot Reportcommitment Of Tradersmust Watch
It is worth noting that the majority of the transactions in the interbank forex market are private and are not made public. For this reason, the retail traders do not have a lot of knowledge about the significant transactions that occur daily in the forex market. Therefore, the COT reports play a significant role in publicizing the futures positioning in the forex market. CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the week February show generalised dollar buying vs G10 currencies. The biggest move is in JPY net positioning, which dropped by nearly 12% of open interest to -25%. This was in line with the moves seen in the spot market at the end of the February week when USD/JPY jumped to the 112 mark on abating coronavirus fears, a grim economic outlook for Japan and a strong dollar.
As there is no volume data available in spot forex trading because there is no centralized exchange to gather data. Professional traders have instead used the Commitment of Traders Report as a substitute for estimating forex trade positioning and price trends. “Speculative fever grips the gold and silver markets” has become a ubiquitous headline, but keeping track of what speculators are doing would be far more difficult than it already is without the weekly Commitment of Traders Report of the Commodities’ Futures Trading Commission . For decades, this has helped analysts to make some sense of trading dynamics on the Comex futures markets, by splitting the participants up by their reason for trading futures. Regulatory.The debate over government oversight on futures margin deposits is almost as old as futures markets themselves.
Standard Source: The Bulky Cftc Report Itself
Given the hefty market moves over the past few days, we highlight how this positioning data must be handled with care and some of the dynamics displayed in the table below may well have reverted back by now. Some studies address the issue from a rather narrow angle by focussing of a very limited number of commodities with no study venturing much beyond the commodity complex. Extend risk sharing impact analysis by considering more player categories as allowed by the new format of the CFTC COT report available from 2006 onwards. The data is captured on the Tuesday prior to the weekly release and spot movements since then have reinforced the recent trend.
The Commitment Of Traders Report And Its Usefulness
For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial. The most note-worthy of these three groups is the Non-Commercial traders and their net long or short positions. One can follow these guys to gauge trend strength, as they are often trend followers, and at the same time one has to be mindful that any extreme in net short or long positions can signal a trend reversal. The short Sterling position also increased for 12th successive week to the highest level since mid-December.
Full Insight On The Commitment Of Traders Cot Report Get 13: 18 79 Mb
Comparison of the 12 agricommodites where the CFTC publishes a weekly index fund report to the Quarterly Investment Report suggests that there are fewer longs and shorts held on the exchanges than notionally would be needed but the net (long/short) position is much the same. Normally the wider report is better, but as index funds typically invest in futures only, we will use that report in this article. Selling interest in the Kiwi dollar has continued to rise despite the sanguine market view in the week covered by the COT report. The New Zealand dollar was the biggest short in the G10 and has likely remained under heavy selling pressure in the past few days amid the risk-off environment. The news over the Feb weekend around the jump in covid-19 cases in Italy, and the subsequent panic sell-off in risky assets were not entirely reflected in the latest COT report.
“There is an ever-more pressing need for a coordinated global effort across industries to effect the monumental transformation needed to address the climate challenge,” Bruce Carnegie-Brown, chair of Lloyd’s and of the SMI Insurance Task Force said in a statement. Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website. Once the page has loaded, scroll down a couple of pages to the “Current Legacy Report” and click on “Short Format” under “Futures Only” on the “Chicago Mercantile Exchange” row to access the most recent COT report. We expect JPY net positioning to have moved decisively back towards/into long territory when the next COT report is published.
This doesn’t tally with what we know about index fund investment in gold and silver, which is that both are substantially net long. The CFTC’s Quarterly Investment Report estimates that, at the end of June 2009 , index fund exposure in gold was 113,000 contracts long and 40,000 contracts short, while in silver it was 38,000 contracts long to 11,000 contracts short. While not all of these will translate into actual futures contracts held on Comex we believe most will be.